Basic Math and Suppositions. Can You Handle a $28 HIVE?
Bitcoin has touched $19,000 today after spending almost "an eternity" in the $16,000 to $17,000 range and there's no certainty it won't get back to these levels¨soon. The past few days' moves don't excite me at all, but neither do they leave me unsensitized.
My gut feeling tells me that $15,700 is the lowest low of BTC for the current bear market and although I don't foresee any bull market in the near time, I do consider that even if we crabwalk for a while from here we're on a "healthy path" towards recovery.
I have a curious mind and a ton of imagination. I have dreamed of becoming a millionaire by winning the lottery since I was a kid and crypto might be my lottery ticket. Sounds goofy, right? I guess it's due to the level of fatigue I got from the gym this evening.
I read a tweet today regarding Litecoin, and the guy writing it was saying that LTC might be on the path DOGE was in the previous bull market, coming after a multi-year accumulation time, being an OG of the industry, and having an immense potential of replicating what DOGE has done in 2021.
Can you imagine altcoins 100Xing in 2024-2025?
I do and I'll tell you why... In the past bear market, 2018-2020, I was quite depressed looking at my portfolio, at some point I had 566,000 DOGE that was worth probably around $1,000 and some fuckers on the internet were saying that alts without use case won't pump anymore during the following bull market and that Ethereum will be "killed" by other blockchains.
Well, had I held on to DOGE long enough I could have nailed something like $400,000 at the peak of it with my "tiny stack", and looks like Ethereum is alive and well despite the negativity coming from such folks towards it during the 2018 bear market.
Scrolling through the top 30 on coingecko I started calculating how many times have different altcoins appreciated from their bottoms in 2018 to their peaks of 2021 and some of them have really had staggering performances.
Just to name a few, ETH did a 50X, BNB nailed a 137X from its bottom to the new peak in 2021, XRP a mere 12X, ADA did a 77X, DOGE was the champ with a 365X thanks to Elon Musk, MATIC was a performer too with 146X and LTC did only a 17X.
So, that makes me conclude not all of them shall perform the same in the next bull market either, but on average, altcoins have scored something like 100X from their 2018 bottoms to their 2021 peaks.
BTC did only a 20X from bottom to top in the past cycle, but if we take the average of the above-mentioned coins of 114X and put that in the HIVE equation we're dealing with a top for HIVE in the next bull market of something like $28. Can you handle that? I sure know I will and that's when we will probably once again see posts payouts in the four figures range.
I'm pretty sure I won't be on that list but I'm fine with that. I'm fine with HIVE at $0.3 as I will be with it nearing $30. I know all of this is just suppositions but that doesn't mean it can't happen, right?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
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i cannot imagine 28$ per hive! even if it happens someday, maybe i sold it half way on 10$ 😅
You would still be in a good position imo.
Always play the fun with numbers game.
Believe it or not, I feel we will be higher than that without a pump but based upon what we are building.
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That would be even better. So far we've only reached decently high levels during pumps
Pretty sure I can't handle $28.
Puts me at a net worth of $5M, not counting other tokens.
But even more insane would be my $300 upvote on top of $3000 blog posts.
If I could reach this level and somehow manage the self control of selling 40% into HBD, that's be $2M earning 20% APR... which is $33k a month just in stable coin yield. I seriously can't even imagine, and yet we've all seen weirder things happen in crypto.
If you ever get there, please sir don't unfollow me. I never had a post payout above $90.
That's the reason I held on to the Shiba Inu I have. That's a lottery ticket for me.
I would have held on to my DOGE, only I didn't know how to make it work for me. Months after I sold it I discovered DeFi. Had I known, I would have kept that DOGE.
One day BTC was a shitcoin; that's just a fact. Next day, it moons to where we saw it in 2022.
Something caused people's perceptions of BTC to change from positive to negative. That's what I bet will happen with Litecoin. Buying LTC now is like buying an ounce of gold when it was "only" USD 200. Both HIVE and LTC are criminally undervalued.
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I get you. I used to be a DOGE fanatic at some point and that pretty much happened with Litecoin as well but not holding any of them anymore.